Global Models

The models currently involved in the Modeling Exercise are:

1. The IMPACT model of IFPRI, United States, which computes global agricultural production according to different world regions and selected countries (270KB, pdf).
2. The WaterGAP model of the University of Kassel, Germany, which computes global water use and availability on a watershed scale.
3. The AIM global change integrated model of the National Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, which computes land cover and other indicators of global change on a worldwide basis, with emphasis on Asia.
4. The IMAGE 2 global change integrated model of RIVM, which computes global land cover and other indicators of global change.
5. The ECOSIM model of world fisheries of the University of British Colombia, Canada, which relates fish catch to trophic levels in marine ecosystem regions.

Modeling Data

• First Round
  • Population Data (MA Scenarios: Techno Garden, Economic Optimism and Elites)
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Climate Data (Economic Optimism A1b, Techno Garden B1 and Elites A2)
  • Modeling time steps are: today, 2020, 2050 and 2100
• Second Round
  • Preliminary Population Data (MA Scenarios: Techno Garden, Economic Optimism, Fortress World and Local Learning) (05.06.2003)
  • Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (MA Scenarios: Techno Garden, Economic Optimism, Fortress World and Local Learning) (12.06.2003)
  • Preliminary Climate Data (based on SRES only) (Econ. Optimism A1b, Techno Garden B1, Fortress World A2 and Local Learning B2) (05.05.2003)
  • Technological Assumptions (technological and structural changes) (24.06.2003, 260KB, pdf)
  • Preliminary Electricity Production (MA Scenarios: Techno Garden, Economic Optimism, Fortress World and Local Learning) (14.07.2003, 1.6MB, Excel)
  • Reporting Units (ARCView shape file with table) (28.04.2003, 8.7MB, zip)
  • Irrigation areas and irrigation efficiencies (10.10.2003, 3.2 MB, zip)
  • Memo regarding 2nd round 2nd phase model runs and modifications (schedule till Prague meeting) (12.09.2003, 70KB, Word)
  • Modeling time steps are: today, 2020, 2050 and 2100
• Coming up rounds
  • MA Population Scenarios (age specific population 2000 – 2050): (all MA Scenarios) (08.01.2004) (2.1 MB, zip)
  • MA Population Scenarios (population totals only):(all MA Scenarios) (31.10.2003, 440KB, Excel)
  • Note:
    • population data are provided as Excel tables
    • preliminary data till final evaluation
    • data reflect the population size by country
    • global and regional totals are identical to the previous results of the 2nd round 2nd phase (Rome till Prague ), but the country specific totals differ
    
    Prepared by Brian O’Neill (IIASA), Sergei Scherbov (Austrian Academy of Science; IIASA), Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA; Austrian Academy of Science ) and Anne Goujon (Austrian Academy of Science; IIASA)

Reports

1st Report of MA Modeling Group (Amsterdam Meeting 01/2003, 90KB, Word)
2nd Report of MA Modeling Group (San Jose, Costa Rica Scenarios Workshop 03/2003, 180KB, Word)
3rd Report of MA Modeling Group (Preliminary technical report 09/2003, 590KB, Word)
MA Scenarios Report – draft of chapter 9 (December 2003, 280KB, Word)
MA Scenarios Report – draft of chapter 9 – tables and figures (December 2003; 1.1 MB, zip)
MA Scenarios Report – draft of chapter 9 – after first review round (May 2004; 2.1 MB, zip)

Preliminary Results

First Round (4.1 MB, zip)
Second Round